How Much Crude Oil Will the USA Produce in 2023 and 2024?

How much crude oil will the U.S. produce this year and next year?

Well, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released last week, U.S. crude oil production will average 12.78 million barrels per day in 2023 and 13.16 million barrels per day in 2024.

Broken down quarterly, the EIA sees U.S. crude oil output averaging 12.86 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 12.94 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, 13.03 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year, 13.09 million barrel per day in the second quarter of 2024, 13.15 million barrel per day in the third quarter, and 13.36 million barrel per day in the fourth quarter.

This production averaged 12.63 million barrels per day in the first quarter and 12.71 million barrels per day in the second quarter, the September STEO highlighted.

According to the STEO, in 2023, the Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico, will produce 10.51 million barrels per day, the Federal Gulf of Mexico will produce 1.85 million barrels per day, and Alaska will produce 0.43 million barrels per day. In 2024, the Lower 48 will produce 10.85 million barrels per day, the Federal Gulf of Mexico will produce 1.90 million barrels per day, and Alaska will produce 0.41 million barrels per day, the STEO showed.

Lower 48 output is projected to average 10.59 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 10.60 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, 10.66 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024, 10.75 million barrels per day in the second quarter of next year, 10.90 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 11.06 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, the report revealed.

This production averaged 10.31 million barrels per day in the first quarter and 10.52 million barrels per day in the second quarter, the STEO highlighted.

In its previous STEO, which was released in August, the EIA projected that U.S. crude oil production would come in at 12.76 million barrels per day in 2023 and 13.09 million barrels per day in 2024. Lower 48 production was expected to come in at 10.52 million barrels per day in 2023 and 10.81 million barrels per day in 2024, Federal Gulf of Mexico output was expected to average 1.81 million barrels per day this year and 1.87 million barrels per next year, and Alaska production was anticipated to average 0.43 million barrels per day in 2023 and 0.41 million barrels per day in 2024.

“We forecast global liquid fuels production will increase by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2023 despite recent voluntary decreases in production from OPEC+,” the EIA noted in its September STEO.

“Global production in our forecast increases by 1.7 million barrels per day in 2024. Non-OPEC production is the main driver of global production growth in our forecast, increasing by 2.0 million barrels per day in 2023 and 1.3 million barrels per day in 2024, led by the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana,” the EIA added.

“We expect Russia’s production will decline by 0.3 million barrels per day on average this year and remain relatively unchanged in 2024. We forecast that OPEC crude oil production will fall by 0.8 million barrels per day in 2023 and increase by 0.4 million barrels per day in 2024,” the EIA continued.

According to figures available on the EIA website, which stretch from the 1850s to 2022 and were last updated in August 2023, yearly U.S. field production of crude oil has never averaged 13 million barrels per day.

The highest output figure shown in the data came in 2019, when U.S. field production of crude oil was revealed to have averaged 12.311 million barrel per day. This production came in at 11.911 million barrels per day in 2022, 11.268 million barrels per day in 2021, and 11.318 million barrels per day in 2020, according to the data.

According to the Energy Institute’s (EI) first, and the overall 72nd, annual statistical review of world energy, U.S. crude oil and condensate production was 11.887 million barrels per day last year.

This figure marked a 5.6 percent year on year increase in production and 14.6 percent of global crude oil and condensate output in 2022, which was the highest of any nation last year, the EI review outlined.

Russia came in second with 10.669 million barrels, which marked a two percent year on year increase and 13.1 percent of the global total, and Saudi Arabia came in third with 10.509 million barrels per day, which marked an 11.9 percent year on year increase and 12.9 percent of the global total, the EI review showed.

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