Strategists Forecast USA Crude Inventory Drop

In a report sent to Rigzone this week, Macquarie strategists projected that U.S. crude inventories would be down 0.7 million barrels for the week ending September 15.

“This follows a 4.0 million barrel build for the week ending September 8, with the total U.S. crude balance realizing modestly tighter than we had anticipated,” the strategists said in the report.

“Moving to this week, from refineries, we look for crude runs down heavily (-0.6 million barrels per day) following another strong print last week,” they added.

“We again look for a large swing in net imports, this week towards tightening the balance, with exports sharply higher on a nominal basis (+1.4 million barrels per day) and imports moderately lower (-0.4 million barrels per day),” the strategists continued.

“As we expect elevated inbound and outbound waterborne flows, timing of cargoes represents a source of potential volatility in this week’s stats,” the strategists went on to state.

Looking at implied domestic supply, the strategists noted in the report that they were looking for a “bounce this week (+0.6 million barrels)”.

“Rounding out the picture, we anticipate a modestly larger increase in Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory on the week (+0.6 million barrels),” the strategists added.

In the report, the strategists also stated that, at Cushing, their refinery/pipeline model is calling for a draw of 2.3 million barrels this week.

“Among products, we look for draws in gasoline (-2.9 million barrels) and distillate (-1.6 million barrels), with jet stocks modestly higher (+0.3 million barrels),” they said.

“We model implied demand for these three products at ~14.3 MBD compared to 13.7 MBD last week and a trailing four-week avg. of 14.4 MBD,” they added.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) next weekly petroleum status report, which will show data for the week ending September 15, is due to be released on September 20.

The EIA’s previous weekly petroleum status report, which was released on September 13 and showed data for the week ending September 8, revealed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, increased by 4.0 million barrels from the week ending September 1 to the week ending September 8.

U.S. crude oil stocks, not including those in the SPR, stood at 420.6 million barrels on September 8, 416.6 million barrels on September 1, and 429.6 million barrels on September 9, 2022, the report showed.

“At 420.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about two percent below the five year average for this time of year,” the EIA said in the latest weekly petroleum status report.

According to that report, crude oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve stood at 350.6 million barrels on September 8, 350.3 million barrels on September 1, and 434.1 million barrels on September 9, 2022.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.8 million barrels per day during the week ending September 8, which was 177,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average, and U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.6 million barrels per day in the week ending September 8, which was 812,000 barrels per day more than the previous week, the EIA report outlined.

Total products supplied over the four-week period ending September 8 averaged 21.0 million barrels a day, up by 6.6 percent from the same period last year, the EIA report revealed.

According to data available on the EIA website, the highest weekly U.S. crude oil ending stock figure, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, was seen on June 19, 2020, at 540.722 million barrels. The lowest weekly U.S. crude oil ending stock figure, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, was seen on January 23, 2004, at 247.323 million barrels, the data showed.

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