Aramco CEO Says Peak Oil Demand Wilting Under Scrutiny

Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser said even though his company’s global oil consumption forecasts have been reduced over the past decade, it still has a more bullish outlook than many observers.

Demand may rise to 110 million barrels per day by 2030, compared to a projection of around 125 million barrels a day that Aramco expected by then back in 2010, he said. 

Even Nasser’s pared-back outlook outstrips other prominent projections, such as International Energy Agency forecasts that oil demand may top out below 105 million barrels a day. The IEA’s prediction that oil consumption will peak this decade and grow at a slower rate in the near term as the energy transition gathers pace has been proven to be unrealistic, Nasser said Monday.

“This notion is also wilting under scrutiny because it’s mostly being driven by policies rather than the proven combination of markets, competitive economics and technology,” Nasser said at the World Petroleum Congress in Calgary.  “There is no quick fix” for the energy transition.

Nasser’s projection for 2030 oil demand would be a roughly 7% increase from the record consumption of 103 million to 104 million barrels a day he’s expecting for the second half of this year, he said. That continued usage makes it “dangerous” to try to phase out fossil fuels too quickly, he said.

Nasser isn’t alone in his bullish near-term outlook for crude demand. Last week, OPEC projected global oil markets would face a supply shortfall of more than 3 million barrels a day next quarter — potentially the biggest deficit in more than a decade. The International Energy Agency projected a smaller, though still significant, shortfall of 1.2 million barrels a day during the second half.

 --With assistance from Devika Krishna Kumar and Kevin Crowley.