Analysts Look at Gabon Oil Situation

The military government in Gabon will likely continue to scrutinize past tax payments, particularly in the oil and gas sector.

That’s according to Maja Bovcon, the Senior Africa Analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft, who pointed out to Rigzone that this would be following in the footsteps of ousted Gabon President Ali Bongo.

“Given the importance of oil and gas revenues for public finances, the reviewing of contractual terms and scrapping tax exemptions will also become increasingly likely over the next two years,” Bovcon told Rigzone.

“Oil and gas companies will likely be subject of increased scrutiny also because of reported close links between former oil minister Vincent de Paul Massassa and Ali Bongo’s son, Noureddin Bongo Valentin,” Bovcon added.

“The military junta will likely try to determine whether contracts allocated to oil and gas companies directly benefited Noureddin, Ali Bongo’s heir-apparent, and the former oil minister,” the Verisk Maplecroft analyst went on to state.

In a report sent to Rigzone earlier this month, analysts at BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, outlined that Gabon was an OPEC wildcard clouding the company’s outlook.

“Concerns have … been raised in Gabon in the wake of the recent coup, which ousted former President Ali Bongo Ondimba,” the analysts noted in the report.

“However, Gabonese production is relatively small by OPEC standards, standing at just 211,000 barrels per day. There has been no disruption to the oil sector so far and, absent a broader civil conflict, we will not alter our outlook on the market,” they added.

“Conflict appears unlikely at this juncture, with the regime change seeming to enjoy significant popular support and the new military leader - General Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema - promising a return to democratic rule,” they continued.

“Oil is a key lifeline for the economy and efforts will likely be made to keep exports flowing, both under transitional rule and after the formation of a new government,” the analysts went on to state in that report.

A statement posted on the African Union (AU) website on August 30 stated that the Chairperson of the AU Commission, Moussa Faki Mahamat, “is following with great concern the situation in Gabon and strongly condemns the attempted coup d'état in the country as a means out of the current post-electoral crisis”.

“The Chairman of the Commission encourages all political, civil and military actors in Gabon to give priority to peaceful political avenues, and a rapid return to democratic constitutional order in the country,” the statement added.

In a statement posted on the UN website on the same day, Stéphane Dujarric, the spokesman for the UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, said, “the Secretary-General is following the evolving situation in Gabon very closely”.

“He notes with deep concern the announcement of the election results amidst reports of serious infringements of fundamental freedoms,” he added.

“The Secretary-General reaffirms his strong opposition to military coups. The Secretary-General calls on all actors involved to exercise restraint, engage in an inclusive and meaningful dialogue and ensure that the rule of law and human rights are fully respected,” he added.

“He also calls on the national army and security forces to guarantee the physical integrity of the President of the Republic and his family. The United Nations stands by the people of Gabon,” he continued.

Gabon became a full member of OPEC in 1975 but terminated its membership in 1995 before rejoining in July 2016, OPEC’s website shows.

In 2021, the value of the country’s petroleum exports hit $4.64 billion, its crude oil production was 181,000 barrels per day, and its proven crude oil reserves stood at two billion barrels, according to the OPEC site.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com